Current issue
Online first
Archive
About the Journal
Aims and scope
Publisher and Editorial
Advertising policy
For Authors
Paper review procedures
Procedures protecting authentic authorship of papers
Paper preparation manual
Plagiarism check
Publication ethics
Reviewers
APC
Editorial and Scientific Board
Contact
Reviewers
Modeling the dynamics of changes in CO2 emissions from Polish road transport in the context of COVID-19 and decarbonization requirements
1
Faculty of Security, Logistics and Management, Military University of Technology, Poland
2
Faculty of Management, Lublin University of Technology, Poland
Submission date: 2023-05-13
Final revision date: 2023-07-08
Acceptance date: 2023-07-17
Online publication date: 2023-07-22
Publication date: 2023-11-11
Corresponding author
Anna Borucka
Faculty of Security, Logistics and Management, Military University of Technolgy, Poland
Faculty of Security, Logistics and Management, Military University of Technolgy, Poland
Combustion Engines 2023,195(4), 63-70
KEYWORDS
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
Emissions from transport account for 20%–25% of global carbon dioxide emissions, with more than 70% coming from road transport, making it an extremely important topic in the context of decarbonization. The aim of the article is to analyze the trend of CO2 generated from road transport, taking into account the its various sources, and also to examine the manner in which reduced mobility during the pandemic affected the emissions at the time.
For this purpose, a time series containing observations up to the pandemic outbreak and a time series containing additional observations from the pandemic period were analyzed. For each time series, a trend was determined and described by a polynomial and then verified to see if the pandemic phenomenon significantly affects a parameter of the proposed model, using appropriate statistical tests.
REFERENCES (42)
1.
Advani M, Sharma N, Dhyani R. Mobility change in Delhi due to COVID and its’ immediate and long term impact on demand with intervened non motorized transport friendly infrastructural policies. Transport Policy. 2021;111:28-37. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tran....
2.
Antosiewicz M, Gorzałczyński A, Rabiega W. The role of public transport in Poland in the pursuit of climate neutrality (in Polish). 2023. https://managerplus.pl/rola-tr... (accessed on 30.04.2023).
3.
Borucka A, Kozłowski E, Oleszczuk P, Świderski A. Predictive analysis of the impact of the time of day on road accidents in Poland. Open Engineering. 2021;11(1):142-150. https://doi.org/10.1515/eng-20....
4.
Borucka A, Pyza D. Influence of meteorological conditions on road accidents. A model indexed by: for observations with excess zeros. Eksploat Niezawodn. 2021;23(3):586-592. https://doi.org/10.17531/ein.2....
5.
de Blas I, Mediavilla M, Capellán-Pérez I, Duce C. The limits of transport decarbonization under the current growth paradigm. Energy Strateg Rev. 2020;32:100543. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.....
6.
Eisenmann C, Nobis C, Kolarova V, Lenz B, Winkler C. Transport mode use during the COVID-19 lockdown period in Germany: The car became more important, public transport lost ground. Transp Policy. 2021;103:60-67. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tran....
7.
European Environment Agency, Air quality in Europe 2022. www.eea.europa.eu. https://www.eea.europa.eu/publ....
8.
European Environment Agency. National emissions reported to the UNFCCC and to the EU Greenhouse Gas Monitoring Mechanism. https://www.eea.europa.eu/en/d....
9.
Global Carbon Atlas. CO2 Emissions |Global Carbon Atlas. Globalcarbonatlas.org. 2020. http://www.globalcarbonatlas.o....
10.
Going climate-neutral by 2050. A strategic long-term vision for a prosperous, modern, competitive and climate-neutral EU economy. 2050 long-term strategy (europa.eu).
11.
Gössling S, Humpe A, Fichert F, Creutzig F. COVID-19 and pathways to low-carbon air transport until 2050. Environ Res Lett. 2021;16(3):034063. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9....
12.
Graba M, Bieniek A, Prażnowski K, Hennek K, Mamala J, Burdzik R et al. Analysis of energy efficiency and dynamics during car acceleration. Eksploat Niezawodn. 2023;25(1):17. https://doi.org/10.17531/ein.2....
13.
Griffiths S, Furszyfer Del Rio D, Sovacool B. Policy mixes to achieve sustainable mobility after the COVID-19 crisis. Renew Sust Energ Rev. 2021;143:110919. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser....
14.
Groll W, Sowiński B, Konowrocki R. Study of transitional phenomena in rail vehicle dynamics in relation to the reliability and operational state of the continuous welded rail track in terms of rail joints. Eksploat Niezawodn. 2023;25(1):7. https://doi.org/10.17531/ein.2....
15.
Hamilton JD. Time series analysis, Princeton University Press. 1994. https://doi.org/10.1515/978069....
18.
Kozłowski E, Borucka A, Świderski A, Skoczyński P. Classification trees in the assessment of the road–railway accidents mortality. Energies. 2021;14(12):3462. https://doi.org/10.3390/en1412....
19.
Kukulski J, Lewczuk K, Góra I, Wasiak M. Methodological aspects of risk mapping in multimode transport systems. Eksploat Niezawodn. 2023;25(1):19. https://doi.org/10.17531/ein.2....
20.
Le Quéré C, Jackson RB, Jones MW, Smith AJP, Abernethy S, Andrew RM et al. Temporary reduction in daily global CO2 emissions during the COVID-19 forced confinement. Nat Clim Change. 2020;10(10):1-7. https://www.nature.com/article....
21.
Lee TH, White H, Granger CWJ. Testing for neglected nonlinearity in time series models. J Econometrics. 1993;56(3):269-290. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4....
22.
Li B, Wang J, Wang J, Zhang L, Zhang Q. A comprehensive study on emission of volatile organic compounds for light duty gasoline passenger vehicles in China: Illustration of impact factors and renewal emissions of major compounds. Environ Res. 2021;193:110461. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envr....
23.
Mączak J, Więcławski K, Szczurowski K. New approach of model based detection of early stages of fuel injector failures. Eksploat Niezawodn. 2023;25(1):6. https://doi.org/10.17531/ein.2....
24.
Melnik R, Koziak S, Dižo J, Kuźmierowski T, Piotrowska E. Feasibility study of a rail vehicle damper fault detection by artificial neural networks. Eksploat Niezawodn. 2023;25(1):5. https://doi.org/10.17531/ein.2....
25.
National Cluster of Innovative Enterprises, Poland 3.0 – A response to modern transport needs (in Polish: Ogólnopolski Klaster Innowacyjnych Przedsiębiorstw, Polska 3.0 – Odpowiedź na współczesne potrzeby transportu). 2016. http://klasterip.pl/polska-3-0....
26.
Oszczypała M, Ziółkowski J, Małachowski J. Semi-Markov approach for reliability modelling of light utility vehicles. Eksploat Niezawodn. 2023;1:25(2). https://doi.org/10.17531/ein/1....
27.
Papalexiou SM, Montanari A. Global and regional increase of precipitation extremes under global warming. Water Resour Res. 2019;55(6):4901-4914. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR....
28.
Ramsey JB. Tests for specification errors in classical linear least-squares regression analysis. J Roy Stat Soc B Met. 1969;31(2):350-371. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2....
29.
Regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council amending Regulation (EU) 2018/842 on binding annual greenhouse gas emission reductions by Member States from 2021 to 2030 contributing to climate action to meet commitments under the Paris Agreement. https://eur-lex.europa.eu/lega....
30.
Road transport in Poland in the years 2020 and 2021 (in Polish), Główny Urząd Statystyczny Warszawa, Szczecin 2023.
31.
Rojas C, Muñiz I, Quintana M, Simon F, Castillo B, de la Fuente H et al. Short run “rebound effect” of COVID on the transport carbon footprint. Cities. 2022;131:104039. https://www.sciencedirect.com/....
32.
Rojas-Rueda D, Morales-Zamora E. Built environment, transport, and COVID-19: a review. Current Environmental Health Reports. 20215;8(2):138-145. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40572....
33.
Schulte-Fischedick M, Shan Y, Hubacek K. Implications of COVID-19 lockdowns on surface passenger mobility and related CO2 emission changes in Europe. Appl Energ. 2021;300:117396. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apen....
34.
Shumway RH, Stoffer DS. Time series analysis and its applications, Springer International Publishing. 2017.
35.
Statistics | Information Portal of the Central Register of Vehicles and Drivers (in Polish). www.cepik.gov.pl. http://www.cepik.gov.pl/statys....
36.
Thompson JR, Gosling SN, Zaherpour J, Laizé CLR. Increasing risk of ecological change to major rivers of the world with global warming. earth’s future. Earth’s Future. 2021;9(11):1-20. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF....
38.
Wang J, Guan Y, Wu L, Guan X, Cai W, Huang J et al. Changing lengths of the four seasons by global warming. Geophys Res Lett. 2021;22:48(6). https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL....
39.
Weiss M, Paffumi E, Clairott M, Drossinos Y, Vlachos T, Bonnel P et al. Including cold-start emissions in the Real-Driving Emissions (RDE) test procedure. Publications Office of the European Union. 2017. https://publications.jrc.ec.eu....
40.
Woodward WA, Gray HL, Elliott AC. Applied time series analysis with R, CRC Press. 2017. https://doi.org/10.1201/978131....
41.
Wooldridge JM. Introductory econometrics: a modern approach, South Western Educ Pub. 2019.
42.
Zhang R, Zhang J. Long-term pathways to deep decarbonization of the transport sector in the post-COVID world. Transp Policy. 2021;110:28-36. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tran....
CITATIONS (1):
1.
Overestimated Environmental Benefits of Short-Term Changes in Mobility Behaviour: The case of Berlin during COVID-19
Mira Kopp, del Perez
Sustainable Cities and Society
Mira Kopp, del Perez
Sustainable Cities and Society
Share
RELATED ARTICLE
| eISSN: | 2658-1442 |
| ISSN: | 2300-9896 |
The scientific journal is financed under the Agreement 185/WCN/2019/1 from the funds of the Minister of Science and Higher Education
© 2006-2024 Journal hosting platform by Bentus
We process personal data collected when visiting the website. The function of obtaining information about users and their behavior is carried out by voluntarily entered information in forms and saving cookies in end devices. Data, including cookies, are used to provide services, improve the user experience and to analyze the traffic in accordance with the Privacy policy. Data are also collected and processed by Google Analytics tool (more).
You can change cookies settings in your browser. Restricted use of cookies in the browser configuration may affect some functionalities of the website.
You can change cookies settings in your browser. Restricted use of cookies in the browser configuration may affect some functionalities of the website.
